雁杰's profileWang yanjie's fieldPhotosBlogListsMore Tools Help

Blog


    July 13

    Lessons From A Trader's Diary(From investopedia.com)


    Almost every successful businessman will tell you that record keeping is critical to running an efficient business. Whether designing sophisticated aeronautics or simply selling scented soap, all businesses record and analyze their transactions to refine and optimize execution. When it comes to trading FX, however, very few traders diligently record and review their trades. FX trading, with its instantly dealable rates and self-organizing accounting software, makes it easy to forsake the discipline of keeping a trading diary. Yet a diary can improve a trader's performance far more than any piece of advanced technical analysis software or even a $2,000-per-day trading seminar. This article will outline what to record in your journal and will provide an example from the writer's own trading diary.

    <ILAYER SRC="http://ad.investopedia.com/?DC=Forex_box&DH=Y" HEIGHT="250" WIDTH="300"> </ILAYER> <NOLAYER> <A HREF="http://ad.investopedia.com/?SHT=Forex_box"><IMG SRC="http://ad.investopedia.com/?SIT=Forex_box" HEIGHT="250" WIDTH="300"></A> </NOLAYER>
    Why is keeping a trading diary so valuable? First, as human beings with faulty memories, we simply forget many of the circumstances surrounding our best and worst trades and, as a result, we learn little from them if they are not recorded. Second, the gap between what we think we do and what we actually do during trading can be embarrassingly large - a problem that can easily be identified with proper note taking. Finally, the mere act of keeping a diary introduces a methodical element to trading that prevents us from trading randomly and impulsively - the culprit behind most trading disasters. (For further reading, see Ten Steps To Building A Winning Trading Plan.)

    Keeping a diary need not be cumbersome or complicated. Here is a list of three key issues that should be covered in every trade:

    1. What did you trade and why?
    The reason for a trade can be either fundamental or technical (preferably both), but there must be a reason. Too many retail traders put on a trade because they think that prices have either risen or fallen "enough", without any technical or fundamental justification for their opinions. Worse, many traders get into positions out of sheer boredom, forcing a trade and then spending the rest of the time trying to justify it. Even if boredom is the primary driver for the trade, having a diary will make the trader record that fact and he or she will be able to see the consequences of such behavior.

    2. Where is your stop and limit and why?
    It is astonishing how many traders get into a trade without any clear idea of where to take a profit or when to get out if the trade moves against them. However, by writing down specific stop and limit orders, the trader consciously plans ahead for any contingency that may occur. Even if a trader disregards the initial stop in the heat of the battle, the act of recording all of that activity will be invaluable in doing post-trade analysis and enforcing better discipline on the next trade. (For more information, read A Look At Exit Strategies.)

    3. Did the trade work out as planned?
    There is often an enormous gap between how the trade setup looks on charts or through the prism of backtesting software and the emotional reality of having money at risk. Comparing the difference between the two can help traders understand their strengths and weaknesses and improve long-term performance. (For more insight, see Backtesting: Interpreting The Past.)

    Because trading is such a visual craft, attaching a chart with annotations will complete the diary process by providing a pictorial reference point for further study.

    Let's take a look at a recent trade I made in USD/JPY and the various comments I made regarding its outcome.

    Figure 1


    1. What did I trade and why?
    I went short USD/JPY at 1pm EST on June 8, 2006, at 114.27. The pair had already rallied significantly after the dollar was boosted by the death of a major al-Qaida terrorist and the relatively dovish comments of European Central Bank President Jean Paul Trichet. Against expectations by some market participants of a 50 basis point hike, Trichet raised rates by only 25 basis points. Dollar/yen had risen in an almost uninterrupted fashion to nearly 115.00, but at 8am EST it made an exhaustion spike higher and left a shooting star pattern on the charts, suggesting that buyers could not sustain the highs. I felt that 115.00 would be a tremendous barrier for dollar bulls to overcome, as many option-related traders were willing to defend that level very aggressively. When price dipped below 114.15, it suggested that further downside may be on the way and I shorted the pair on a small rebound at 114.27.

    2. Where did I set my stops and limits and why?
    I set my stop at 114.58. Although that price level was below the swing high of 114.75, I felt that any break above 114.50 by anything more than a few points completely negated my bearish thesis and that I should get out because the market would likely make a second run at the important 115.00 figure.

    I always trade with two targets because I believe that while the near-term direction of the currency pair may be somewhat predictable, the amplitude of the move is not. That's why I set the first target at a reasonable distance from entry and the second target farther away in case the move gained momentum. Therefore, I set my first target at 114.01, just ahead of the 114.00 figure, and my second target was set at 113.80.


    ADVERTISEMENT
    In this exclusive must-read free report compliments of ChartAdvisor.com you’ll learn 5 of the most reliable chart patterns for delivering explosive and profitable trading ideas.


    3.
    Did the trade work out as planned?
    Partially. Just as I had expected, the pair traded lower and by 6pm EST, it reached my first target of 114.01, allowing me to bank 26 points. I instantly moved my stop to break-even, but then had to step away from the screen for several hours. When I returned, I saw that price had missed my second target by just a few pips and was now trading back near the 114.00 level. As price once again began moving my way, I sold one more quarter of the position at 113.95, locking in another 32 points on that part of the trade. Just a few seconds later, prices collapsed and hit my second target of 113.80. Did I execute to plan? Not quite. I rushed my second exit, fearing the loss of immediate profit more than the lure of additional gain and gave up 15 points of potential profit.

    Conclusion
    The act of maintaining a diary crystallized my dominant behavioral patterns, clearly showing that I am not capable of holding most of my positions long enough to achieve a 2:1 risk/reward pattern. In my case, it is even more critical to choose only the highest probability setups that have an expectancy rate of better than 60% in order for my trading to succeed.

    For other (more patient) traders, the diary process may reveal that they should expand their risk parameters in order to allow for the possibility of capturing larger gains. Regardless of the conclusion, the process of diary writing reveals the true human nature of trading that those clean, crisp charts and the coldly efficient results of backtesting systems simply cannot convey. It also demonstrates why computerized systems have such a difficult time trading markets. In fact, I have witnessed the results of hundreds of systems trade in real time and not one of them was profitable in the long term. Trading requires all of our emotional and analytical capabilities in order to produce success. The act of keeping a trading diary helps us better understand the demons that drive us and, in turn, makes us better traders.

    By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist, FXCM

    Boris Schlossberg is the Senior Currency Strategist at Forex Capital Markets in New York, one of the largest retail forex market makers in the world. He is a frequent commentator for Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC and Dow Jones CBS Marketwatch. His book "Technical Analysis of the Currency Market", published by John Wiley and Sons, is available on Amazon, where he also hosts a blog on all things trading.

    July 08

    Bloomberg free training in Beijing on July5

    It was such an amazing time to use Bloomberg Terminal. You can find almost everything you want here! I was really impressed by the system though it was not the first time I use Bloomberg Terminal. Each industry can make a big deal, really big, like Bloomberg, who collects and integrates all kinds of information. That is amazing!

    There are different kinds of food and drink there, said, pies and pure juice. Everybody seemed to have a lot of fun there. When we finished the training, the teacher recommended us to watch the world cup on the Terminal, huh!

    Fight

    Results of The Deal.

    Congratulations to the Top Teams from the Chinese Universities

    Congratulations to the top team from each Chinese university who have been selected to enter Round 3 of the competition.

    Fudan University
    Team 6: Tianjiao Yao (team captain), Hanva Liu, Yixue Zhou, Haiyang Ru
    Peking University
    Team 8: Yanjie Wang (team captain), Dongqing Liang, Xiong Yi, Tianyi Chen
    Tsinghua University
    Team 10: Zhengwei Ma (team captain), Jing Wei, Yan Gao, Ying Zhai

    We would like to thank all students who participated in The Deal. We hope to meet you in mid-October for our JPMorgan campus recruiting presentations. To learn more about careers at JPMorgan, please visit our recruiting website.

    July 07

    资本的秘密

    奉老板之命读完秘鲁大牛DE SOTO 的《THE MYSTERY OF CAPITAL》。今天在这里多扯几句,顺便隆重将其推荐给处在经济学水深火热CCER同胞:
    该书作者DE SOTO生平的神奇之处以后专门撰文描述。先集中力量看看这部“令人窒息”的杰作。据说这本书刚出来一年之内就有十多种语言的译本,在老美种种排行榜上几乎都能看见这本书,书的封底有一大堆牛人的推荐,抄几段爽一下:

    "A very great book...powerful and completely convincing. It will have a most salutary effect on the views held on economic development." By RONALD COASE
    "De Soto has demonstrated in practice that titling hitherto untitled assets is an extremely effective way to promote economic development of society as a whole. He offers politicians a project which can contribute to the welfare of their country and at the same time enhance their own political standing, a wonderful conbination." MILTON FRIEDMAN.


    作者整本书所有的分析其实建立长期的观察和简单敏锐的直觉之上:在大部分发展中国家(包括转型国家),在合法表述的资本之外,还存在大量尚未经过合法表达的、自发形成的财产占有方式。而且这些非合法表达的财产数量大的惊人,但这些财富往往得不到有效地利用,由于缺少法律的保护,这些财富往往无法进行有效的交易,无法得到有效的配置,并且交易的不畅又使得所有者获得的收入减少,开发动机不够,总之,这些财富没有形成今后可以产生更多价值的有机纽带。这种不效率是一种整体上的概念,举一个例子,尚未发放土地证书的土地,法律意义上所有权的缺失没有没有影响实际上使用情况,土地上定居了不合法占有土地的人,“人在地在”,倘若现在有其他外地赚取收入的活动,take it or not? 如果在拥有合法表述的地权的情况下,那么完全可以出让或者保留土地,然后再do whatever he wants。 然而在我们这个例子里,情况就比较复杂,由于没有合法的产权制度(抱歉,其实我一直避免使用这个术语的),完成交易的费用(主要是品质鉴别和定价)较高,交易较难发生,倘若没有进行交易,那么他目前则有三个选择:1“走西口”,同时家中的土地由于缺少看护人,同时没有法律(社会)保障,被他人占有,各位异地恋的看官小心了!2雇佣熟人看管土地,同时外出;3守土。
    与前孰优孰劣一望便知。

    以上从结果上可以看出合法表达对于资源有效配置的作用,从过程上来讲,这种作用更为明显,完善的产权制度包括了一个权证体系,提供附属物各种物理属性和过去的交易记录,同时也可作为一套信用制度,这样不必经过复杂的品质鉴定就可以完成定价,交易过程大大简化,仅仅需要通过发送文件通过律师的审核就可以进行。就比如秀才挑瓜,不得其法之时,突然对方亮出各种认证:“宫廷御用”、ISO900、××驰名商标,包退包换,这样就没有必要继续拍西瓜皮了。

    DE SOTO认为一个发展中国家的经济潜力来自与将这些尚未纳入正规法律的财产合法化的过程。并通过考证,指出美国的历史也正是这样一个过程。非常滑稽的是,文中指出,根据五十多个国家的panel data的结果表明,一个人群中律师比例上升一个百分点,经济则将下降四个百分点。我用这个实证嘲弄法学院的一个大牛很久,噢耶。

    很难想象今天在头脑巨不清醒的情况下写了这么多,这本书还是很赞的。切入的视角是发达国家那些生活在正规产权制度下的居民很难理解的。值得一读。